Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.012761 0.014422 0.016220 0.018310 0.020673 0.023264 0.026321
2025-11-23 0.009932 0.012175 0.014807 0.018123 0.022195 0.027038 0.033244
2025-11-30 0.008623 0.011176 0.014340 0.018557 0.024036 0.030928 0.040278
2025-12-07 0.007308 0.009911 0.013286 0.017991 0.024395 0.032828 0.044818
2025-12-14 0.006403 0.009030 0.012572 0.017708 0.024986 0.034959 0.049727
2025-12-21 0.005605 0.008186 0.011789 0.017200 0.025146 0.036433 0.053764
2025-12-28 0.005268 0.007945 0.011804 0.017789 0.026876 0.040215 0.061401
2026-01-04 0.004913 0.007632 0.011671 0.018125 0.028228 0.043519 0.068577
2026-01-11 0.004627 0.007391 0.011611 0.018546 0.029720 0.047122 0.076490
2026-01-18 0.004250 0.006967 0.011225 0.018409 0.030299 0.049320 0.082318
2026-01-25 0.003944 0.006627 0.010935 0.018388 0.031042 0.051811 0.088799
2026-02-01 0.003626 0.006236 0.010527 0.018127 0.031350 0.053584 0.094183
2026-02-08 0.003424 0.006029 0.010414 0.018369 0.032554 0.057000 0.102783
2026-02-15 0.003171 0.005713 0.010090 0.018216 0.033054 0.059240 0.109501
2026-02-22 0.003039 0.005597 0.010100 0.018650 0.034629 0.063491 0.120224
2026-03-01 0.002768 0.005205 0.009585 0.018081 0.034310 0.064268 0.124502
2026-03-08 0.002564 0.004921 0.009242 0.017798 0.034489 0.065964 0.130651
2026-03-15 0.002350 0.004597 0.008800 0.017287 0.034185 0.066706 0.134971
2026-03-22 0.002293 0.004574 0.008922 0.017879 0.036081 0.071836 0.148496
2026-03-29 0.002208 0.004489 0.008918 0.018216 0.037490 0.076107 0.160616
2026-04-05 0.002139 0.004428 0.008955 0.018640 0.039104 0.080906 0.174240
2026-04-12 0.002014 0.004244 0.008731 0.018502 0.039535 0.083303 0.182926
2026-04-19 0.001911 0.004096 0.008568 0.018481 0.040207 0.086247 0.193042